DistributionPolitics

Flood crisis? We will deal with it when it happens!

Summer of 2007 has perhaps brought one of the greatest natural disasters that this country has seen for a very long time with the flooding that has occurred in the south-east and west midlands of England.  Furthermore, Labour Government has completely failed to deal with the growing problem never mind premeditate it.  Oh, they can talk about climate change though.

Despite consistent flooding around England since 2000 added to the fact of climate change no active premeditated response has occurred except for typical sound bites.  In fact a story was linked to The Times on July 1st that Government intended cutting funding for flood defences until 2011, I wonder if this is still so?  Gordon Brown has managed to draw up £18 million relief fund for the devastated areas but what future plans has he drawn up to combat future flooding?

Opposition must draw the public to this lack of planning and organisation to the publics attention.  Ming Campbell has already visited Hull stating...

"Last week there were no preparations put in place despite early severe weather warnings"

How true.  Typical New Labour.  Deal with the problem once the problem has occurred, it was the same in 2000 with Petrol Crisis, 2001 with foot and mouth and 2003 Fire strike (lets forget about the post strikes...have some pity).  Unfortunately for Labour there policy announcements since 1997 are about 10 steps ahead of its policy strategy planning. By time it catches up a new policy announcement happens on the same issue.

Events are certainly against David Cameron at the moment.  Cameron is stuck in Rwanda (which normally would of been a good public relations trip for a future Prime Minister) when he may want to be in the UK dealing with a incompetent Government and flooding. 

One can never see the future but can plan for it.  Getting it right is the trick.  At least Cameron planing but what a Government.

Whacky Right move against Cameron

Ridicules story that was in the Sunday Telegraph this morning regarding 6 Conservative MP's plotting to out David Cameron was laughable as much as it was provocative in stimulating anger.  No doubt they come from the right of the party and will suggest someone completely unelectable to replace Cameron.

David Cameron is facing his toughest period as leader of the Conservative Party.  He has...

• come third in two by-elections,
• trails Labour for the first time since taking charge,
• had a backbench MP crossing to Labour and
• facing growing discontent with grass roots members 

In short he is at his weakest stage yet and at his most attackable. Crazy right of the Conservative Party will be sitting ready with a maniac smile.  But, its reasonable to presume that Cameron was always going to be at this stage.  New Prime Minister means honeymoon period.  Unfortunately for Cameron he has started quite energetically and well on top of his honeymoon.  Yet, it will not last after all events dear boy events. 

Lets not forget David Cameron has been in terms of poll rating the most successful Conservative leader since John Major in 1992.  That is a long time.  Some Conservative MP's and members will fight all out to make policy on...

• Immigration
• Taxes
• Families
• Europe

Despite the fact that these policies were used during 2001 and 2005 General Elections to disastrous effect the wacky right shout on.  Claim that they look more for ideological purity rather then election victory rings true.  Cameron has to keep modernising, fight of any challenge and stick to his election strategy.  Brown will blink.  Only worry I have in this respect is that the Prime Minster could call a General Election before Christmas, unlikely but possible.

One thing that Cameron must do is gain stronger relations within the press.  Hopefully for DC appointment of Adam Coulson will solve this.

Labour by-elections boost

So I was wrong about Tony Lit and the only shock about Thursday two By-Elections was that ther were no shocks.  Undoubtedly, the big loser has been the Conservative Party with labour getting a confidence boost and the Lib Dems certainly holding there own.

Whoever made the decision to allow Tony Lit to stand as a Comeron Conservative should not be asked to do the Tory leader any favours again.  Cameron now is fully associated with the defeat.

Class Smith, New Home Secretary Gets Her Lines Right

Jacqui Smith, the New Labour Home Secretary, admittance that she smoked cannabis whilst at University has not been greeted with the outcry I expected considering the circumstances.  Circumstances being that Gordon Brown plans to up grade the drug back to Class B.  Last 10 years of Labours tenure the drug has yo-yoed between the two classes constantly.

I completely agree with Jacqui Smith admitting to smoking the drug and arguing that she in effect knows how harmful the drug is from experiences.  David Cameron should of perhaps taken a similar line after winning the Conservative leadership contest (though it would not of been sensible to admit taking).  In the words of Jacqui Smith...

     "I hope that my experiences in my life have actually helped me understand that I do want crime tackled"

Exactly.   

UPDATE:  Perhaps the press are not taking it as laid back as I first thought.  Sky News appears to be trying to make a story out of nothing.  Never mind.  They may have a By-Election surprise to talk about in the morning.

Tony Litting up Southall in face of boring Sedgefield By-Election

Thursday 19th of July brings two by-elections in Sedgefield (following Tony Blair's resignation as PM and as a MP)  and Ealing Southall  (Piara Khabra sad death).  Both by-elections have seen the honeymoon boom of a new Prime Minister in the opinon polls but as the Liberal democrats have shown in many a by-election, one off polls can go against the norm.

Phil Wilson who is the Labour candidate should win Sedgefield particuarly after the apperrance of Tony Blair.  Sedgefield has been the least coveraged of the two campaigns with the BNP and UKIP present (strangely the BNP candidate was a UKIP contestor at 2005 General Election).  Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting has suggested the Lib Dems could spring a surprise?  Possible. They are running there usual we are the only ones who can win against the present incumbrent campaign. 

Ealing Southall has been the more lively campaign.  Despite the Sunday papers stories concerning Tony Lit supporting Tony Blair at a Labour function a month ago I would still put a sporting bet that he can win the seat for the Conservative Party.  He has been by far the stand out candidate and the man who has got the media coverage.  However, whatever happens Conservative Party have a hard task in Ealing Southall but the transfer of 5 Labour Councillors to the Conservative Party is a great sign for Cameron.

Outcome of the two by-elections will be a far bigger indicator if there is to be a early General Election or not.

Its Party Funding not Galloway

George Galloway proposed 18 day suspension from the House of Commons by the Parliamentary Standards Watchdog once again brings into question the way political parties should be funded. 

Being no fan of Galloway, I believe he is a self publicist and this helps his own strive for attention. Inquiry still did not find him to be dishonest but "consistently failed to live up to the expectation of openness and straightforwardness" in the words of Sir Philip Mawer.  However, with a greater transparency in political party funding problems that the Inquiry faced with Galloway may well not exist.

Party political funding is a issue that DistributionPolitics shall continue.

Bob Marshall-Andrews Retires

One of the dying breed of politicians a Barrister come Member of Parliament (and practising while sitting in the House of Commons) is retiring from Parliament at the next General Election.  Bob Marshall-Andrews MP for Medway has confirmed he is standing down and although Bob is not everyones cup of tea he has undoubtedly been one of best back bencher's in the last twenty years.

Bob Marshal-Andrew is just as likely to savage his own side as he would the Conservative Party if something angered his principles enough.  Good luck Bob.

Claudius Boris for London

Boris Johnson's long awaited entry into the London Mayor race has livened up the Conservative bid for London.  Johnson is certainly the most controversial character the Conservatives have chosen since Jeffery Archer however I like many others have no idea of what the outcome will be with a Bozzer candidacy.

He will undoubtedly win the Conservative nomination (if he gets that far) with only Steve Norris capable of stopping the Henley MP.  Johnson in this respect may well be his own enemy which he has demonstrated with two cities already, Liverpool and Plymouth.  Is he a buffoon or a skilled Robert Graves Claudius?

Many commentates such as Iain Dale have pointed out that Johnson will dominate the media.  Perhaps this is true but Ken Livingstone is not shy of publicity or any less bold to provoke reactions and has enough cockney swagger about him to have a strong London following.  Livingstone will be strong displace.  I do agree though that Johnson is the Conservative best hope but at the same time potentially their worst nightmare.  Part of me does believe if he gets as far as the final day of voting against Livingstone it would be a mild victory.  I would like to add all the best to Nick Boles in his own battle, a man who would have been a fine candidate.

Marriage, nice thought but....

After hearing the Social Justice report by Iain Duncan Smith I welcomed much of it but was cautious to one part of it, the focus of marriage.  Naturally IDS intentions were positive and assured but by concentrating so much on marriage via tax breaks including other benefits it risks alienating other perhaps larger audiences.

Nothing wrong of course on families they are the cornerstone of civilisation but a family is not necessarily based on marriage.  What a about couples who are not married but have a family or spending there natural lives together.  Gay community do not have the option of marriage but civil partnerships.  What of them?  Lone Parents often do not intend to be as they are but fortune puts them in such a state.  Unlike some groups I do not believe in criticising single parents for what they are.  In short nobody should be left out in society or discriminated against either intentionally or not.

Unfortunately Labour may have the right attitude but the wrong policy of focusing on Children rather then the general field of families.  After all a family could mean many different things and set up's but marriage is not a possibility to everyone.  Lets not forget as well marriage is a religious ceremony not a piece of social convenience.  Very muddy water.  This is not a criticism of IDS and I agree with many things the report proposed.

Cameron must stay focused

The Sunday Telegraph reaction to the ICM Poll which gives Labour a 7 point Lead over the Conservatives may well be painful reading for David Cameron but that is all it should be, painful reading.  More embarrassing for the Party is Tony Lit (Conservative candidate in the Ealing Southall By-Election) being revealed to be a Labour fund raiser via his company Sunrise Radio.

Labour's lead of 7 points is only coming during Gordon Browns honeymoon period.  Brown has had a lot of attention recently which is natural after taking over the Premiership along with quite a large government reshuffle.   Best thing for the Conservative Party from this is for Gordon Brown to call a unexpected Autumn General Election, then we shall see how popular the pension raider former Chancellor is.  David Cameron should not veer to the right and should carry on modernising and sticking to the centre ground.  In a phrase...DON'T PANIC.

Charismatic Tony Lit selection should be taken as a lesson by team Cameron.  First of all know your candidate and secondly its always important to be a Conservative to be a Conservative Member of Parliament.  Still, prior to this morning I thought Lit was going to win and despite what Labour (never mind Lib Dem) leaflets will be saying in the constituency, a week is a long time in politics.