Thursday 19th of July brings two by-elections in Sedgefield (following Tony Blair's resignation as PM and as a MP) and Ealing Southall (Piara Khabra sad death). Both by-elections have seen the honeymoon boom of a new Prime Minister in the opinon polls but as the Liberal democrats have shown in many a by-election, one off polls can go against the norm.
Phil Wilson who is the Labour candidate should win Sedgefield particuarly after the apperrance of Tony Blair. Sedgefield has been the least coveraged of the two campaigns with the BNP and UKIP present (strangely the BNP candidate was a UKIP contestor at 2005 General Election). Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting has suggested the Lib Dems could spring a surprise? Possible. They are running there usual we are the only ones who can win against the present incumbrent campaign.
Ealing Southall has been the more lively campaign. Despite the Sunday papers stories concerning Tony Lit supporting Tony Blair at a Labour function a month ago I would still put a sporting bet that he can win the seat for the Conservative Party. He has been by far the stand out candidate and the man who has got the media coverage. However, whatever happens Conservative Party have a hard task in Ealing Southall but the transfer of 5 Labour Councillors to the Conservative Party is a great sign for Cameron.
Outcome of the two by-elections will be a far bigger indicator if there is to be a early General Election or not.